Here's a talking point I see all the time: "Republican strategists have always said this next election will be very close." This is their way of saying that Bush's decline in the polls was predicted and expected and therefore nothing to worry about; All Is According To Plan.

Though the Conventional Wisdom is currently settling into agreement with the Republican "very close" line right now, it's starting to sound pretty hollow to me.

Let's look at this election another way.

1. George H.W. Bush (41) was less beholden to the ideologues in the Republican Party than George W. Bush (43) is.
2. Bush 41 was therefore free to adjust his policies in response to reality now and then, making his Presidency merely mediocre, not especially damaging to the country.
3. Bush 43 very rarely changes course, even when his policies are not having the positive effects that were touted as the reason for implementing them.
4. Since he more rarely adjusts policy to reality, Bush 43's presidency is failing on more fronts than Bush 41's, and will continue to do so.
5. Observation: Bush 41 lost.

So, why exactly is the Conventional Wisdom saying that with a worse record than his father, it's going to be close?

Yes, yes, campaigns and candidates matter, and there's many a slip twixt cup and lip, but all the same, knowing what I know today: I don't think it will be close.

The "Republican strategists have always said it'll be close" line is sounding more like a plea to me than a prediction; they're trying to talk up their chances (which, admittedly, has been a frequently successful tactic of this crew since 1999).

I'm sure they'll be wishing it was close come November.