Value Judgment: Guh

Value Judgment is a daily weblog written by two independent voters on the eastern seaboard of the United States. VJ will focus on the 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns, including strategy, tactics, and substance. The authors supported Howard Dean in the Democratic primary. Accordingly, his activities will be a prominent topic on this site.

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January 19, 2004

Guh

Yuck. There are all kinds of negative rumors swirling around about trouble for Dean at the caucuses in Iowa. Having never paid attention at this level before (I didn't much care between Gore and Bradley, although leaned Gore, and I was not paying attention at all in 1992), I have no idea what to think and wouldn't dare make a prediction.

What I do know is that while I would love to see Dean wrap up the nomination quickly, there are numerous forces aligned against him and his campaign. If we have to go all the way to Super Tuesday before this thing is decided, then so be it, we'll go all the way to Super Tuesday.

Posted by J at January 19, 2004 7:57 PM

Comments

The 2004 Caucuses Leaderboard is updating -- 64 precincts reporting, Kerry, Edwards, Dean - 1, 2, 3.

Posted by: genehack at January 19, 2004 8:29 PM

Well, as someone who watched the Gore-Bradley Iowa primary VERY closely, I can tell you...Iowa can suck. I figured there might be trouble once Carville and Begala both picked Kerry 1st - they have access to the best numbers. Of course, it's not over yet, but Dean himself is on Larry King right now basically saying he's come in third.

Posted by: Kevin at January 19, 2004 9:05 PM

So, the big impact of Iowa is that Kerry isn't dead in New Hampshire, and Gep is gone, baby, gone. Dean takes a licking, but he's got the money and the organization to take it and come back strong in New Hampshire and down the road...

Posted by: genehack at January 19, 2004 9:10 PM

I think that sums it up -- of course, hundreds of thousands of words will be spent over the next week or until NH saying that very thing. ;-)

I'm quite surprised by Kerry's showing in Iowa. And he is the only other candidate not to accept matching funds, so by the calculus I've been using, the only other candidate with even a remote chance against the Republican money machine. Hmm. He's also incredibly annoying.

Posted by: J at January 19, 2004 9:13 PM

True...if Dean takes NH next week, he can now rightfully claim to be the "Comeback Kid." It'll be interesting to see how the revival of Kerry (veteran) and Edwards (southerner) affects Clark in NH...AND in the South.

Posted by: Kevin at January 19, 2004 9:14 PM

NH gets more interesting because Clark is in the game there, though. (And Lieberman, as if that matters.) And the tension continues... 8^)=

Posted by: genehack at January 19, 2004 9:17 PM

The money thing actually bugs me about Kerry -- because of the source of Kerry's money, as opposed to where Dean is getting his dollars.

Dean on MSNBC at the moment, spinning the "on to New Hampshire" thing pretty hard. Still seems upbeat, and is making good points -- the real thing here is beating Bush, we're taking back the country, etc.

Fineman is also Teh Suck, by the way.

Posted by: genehack at January 19, 2004 9:33 PM

Kerry's the horse of most of the young Dem politicos I know and used to work with too. I presume they're thrilled.

Tonight could end up being good for Dean, though: It definitely muddles the question of the anti-Dean, with Kerry/Clark/Edwards overlapping on the veteran/southern axis. And it should energize any Dean-voters who were getting complacent.

At any rate, I'm curious to see where Edwards goes from here. I'm Kerry-agnostic, but I'll admit that Edwards still intrigues me.

Posted by: Kevin at January 19, 2004 10:19 PM

"I'll admit that Edwards still intrigues me."

Yep. With a couple of exceptions he hasn't really annoyed me.

Oh my god. Dean is freaking me out on CNN right now.

Posted by: J at January 19, 2004 10:39 PM

Yeah, does he know he's on national TV? That list of states with the choked-off high-pitched scream at the end was cringe-worthy. He seems to have settled down here at the tail end, though.

Posted by: Kevin at January 19, 2004 10:43 PM

Yeah, the MSNBC crew pounded him on that.

Edwards sure talks purty, but I'd like to see some actual policy to go with all that fancy plannin'.

Posted by: genehack at January 19, 2004 10:47 PM

Yeah, Kevin, that's what I was referring to, too.

Posted by: J at January 19, 2004 10:50 PM

Hey, Gephardt just signed off with the Galaxy Quest mantra.

Posted by: Kevin at January 19, 2004 11:00 PM

Argh. Chris Lehane on MSNBC right now, trying to stick a shiv in Kerry. shudder He is The Evil, and pretty much kills any good feeling I might ever have about Clark.

High point: Chris Matthews asking Lehane if he was fired by the Kerry campaign, and Lehane tap-dancing around his non-answer answer.

Posted by: genehack at January 19, 2004 11:31 PM

re: Kerry's money -- if it looks like Kerry has a shot again, I'm sure the money spigots will turn back on and he can stop mortgaging his property.

re: Lehane -- Agree. He's an embarrassment, and only seems to be able to vent his spleen at other Democrats; wilts in the face of Republicans.

Speaking of Republicans - there were a number of high-profile Repubs in Iowa this week and weekend -- and of course lots of conspiracy theories as to whether that had anything to do with the turnout. Even so, it looks like Trippi's '1's did not show up in the numbers the campaign was predicting, so something is broken.

Posted by: J at January 20, 2004 6:14 AM