Value Judgment: Are They Spooked?

Value Judgment is a daily weblog written by two independent voters on the eastern seaboard of the United States. VJ will focus on the 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns, including strategy, tactics, and substance. The authors supported Howard Dean in the Democratic primary. Accordingly, his activities will be a prominent topic on this site.

Mail us:
V at valuejudgment.org or
J at valuejudgment.org

Link to VJ:

January 27, 2004

Are They Spooked?

Could V's prediction of trouble for the Republicans (orthogonal to whatever the Democrats are doing) be true? A rumor that's been floating in the 'blogosphere' for awhile has made it to the mainstream press. Will we see a Bush/Giuliani ticket in '04?

A well-placed source says that the president will "most likely" drop Dick Cheney from his re-election ticket and his first choice for a replacement is former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani.

"The issue of Cheney?s health will probably be given as the reason," says the insider. "There's a short list of possible replacements, and Rudy is at the top of the list."

The source adds that the selection of the former New York mayor may be overridden by Bush advisors from the far right. "Giuliani has been pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and is pretty liberal on some other social issues, but the thinking is that he might broaden Bush?s appeal."

I predict that this will not happen. Oh, they might drop Cheney, but I don't think they'll replace him with Giuliani. But, my predictive skills are absolute crap and based on nothing more than my gut feeling at the moment, so take it for what it's worth.

Posted by J at January 27, 2004 05:39 PM

Comments

J, I'm not one to take part in the perpetuation of unfounded rumors (ha ha), but I did hear from a friend of a friend of a friend of a source, sort of, that it wasn't Guiliani as the replacement but Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. The former (popular) Gov. of Pennsylvania delivering not only the important 'homeland security' vote for W, but also the important swing state of many, many electoral votes, notably Pennsylvania. For what it's worth.

Posted by: Benjamin at January 27, 2004 05:46 PM

Hmmm. I would believe that more easily if Ridge were widely perceived as either reassuring or doing a great job.

My impression is that he's largely been a cipher as far as the public is concerned. Though maybe not in Pennsylvania.

Giuliani sounds more plausible to me; and if it's been in the works for a long time, hey, great reason to pick New York as the RNC convention site!

Posted by: V at January 27, 2004 05:57 PM

Giuliani as a VP choice doesn't make sense. His pro-gay, three times married image would turn off voters and the conservative base. And Ridge is too bland to be considered a candidate. Bush needs someone dynamic and respected like Powell or Rice.

Posted by: Inin at February 16, 2004 04:07 AM

Are either Powell or Rice still respected? Rice has lied or betrayed extreme incompetence on national television (depending on your interpretation) and Powell is now freaking out at staffers during Congressional testimony (not to mention that rumor has it that he's out in '05 even if Dubya is elected.)

I agree that Giuliani would be a strange choice, but the Republicans are not shy about being hypocrites (Hello, GropenGuvernur!) Ridge also seems plausible to me.

And hey, what about Jebby?

Posted by: J at February 16, 2004 10:54 AM