Value Judgment: Unlikelihood of Kerry-Dean '04

Value Judgment is a daily weblog written by two independent voters on the eastern seaboard of the United States. VJ will focus on the 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns, including strategy, tactics, and substance. The authors supported Howard Dean in the Democratic primary. Accordingly, his activities will be a prominent topic on this site.

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March 14, 2004

Unlikelihood of Kerry-Dean '04

Until today, the notion of a Kerry-Dean ticket had always struck me as completely implausible. Not on the merits, but because of geography and personality. However, while watching Dean on MTP today, the thought did trickle through my brain that it may not be as wacky as all that. Still pretty wacky, but perhaps not quite as wacky as I'd thought. Turns out, I wasn't the only one to ponder this today. Here's a Kos thread about it. Some interesting points. I also find this comment of Dean's on MTP very interesting:

You know, one of the things--I've gotten to know John a little bit since the campaign was over, and I think that what he does sometimes is muse in public.

Not the musing in public bit, but the getting to know Kerry bit. I suspect that throw-away comment masks a lot, and I'm extremely curious what sort of conversations they've had. They seem to have been positive. There's no way Dean would be on MTP bringing the Democratic response to Condi Rice if Kerry-the-nominee weren't comfortable with it. And they both sent out positive emails about each other last week. It's all very fascinating.

There's a big Kerry fundraiser coming up soon near me -- if Howard Dean is going to be there, it will be very tempting to fork over the dough and go. Hmmm.

Posted by J at March 14, 2004 07:44 PM

Comments

As they have said in the past Politics make strange bed fellows.
Has Dean come under the spell to be on the ticket for himself or for you ?
Makes one think about just what he stands for if this becomes a partnership...

Posted by: poucho at March 15, 2004 10:55 PM

I don't understand this criticism? What spell?

I'll never understand the Dean supporters who are all upset that Dean is doing what he said he would do: support the Democratic nominee for President against George Bush.

Some people are all surprised that he's keeping his word and accusing him of being a sellout. It's utterly baffling.

Posted by: J at March 16, 2004 06:05 AM

Ya know... Dean is doing exactly what McCain did in 2000 - focusing on trying to reform the party from within. Many McCain Independents responded to his choice much the same way many Dean Independents are responding to his. C'est la vie. To a point I think it's to be expected, regardless of what the candidate had said he would do.

Posted by: Kevin@TIV at March 16, 2004 01:24 PM

Except that it's too early to tell whether he's doing "exactly what McCain did." I never had the sense that McCain was as frustrated with the Republican party as Dean has been with the Democrats. Nor did I see McCain encouraging his grassroots supporters to run for office and stand up an organization to help them do so. Of course, McCain wasn't worried about making sure Bush defeated the worst President ever, either.

There are definitely differences.

Posted by: J at March 16, 2004 01:56 PM

Well, that's a valid point. But, Dean is in a fundamentally different situation than McCain was. Dean is an EX-Gov who doesn't have to worry about getting re-elected. Whereas McCain had to keep an eye towards his re-election.

I'm not seeing much from Dean himself encouraging grassroots supporters to run for office. That I'm seeing from the Dean MeetUp people. Dean himself seems to be doing exactly what McCain did in encouraging his grassroots supporters to support friendly fellow elected officials - like Jesse Jackson Jr. I think McCain's frustration with his party was masked by his need to keep an eye out for his re-election. In that sense Dean has a far freer hand to play than McCain did or does.

Of course, that points out another fundamental difference between now and 2000. McCain's organization was very web-savvy. But, nobody had thought up MeetUps yet. So, he was handicapped, compared to Dean, in what tools were available to him to shape his grassroots following after he withdrew.

Thus far, while the specifics aren't the same, I see Dean following the same basic plan that McCain did. I expect Dean to get different results, in large part because the dynamics in the Dems are different than with the GOPers.

Posted by: Kevin@TIV at March 16, 2004 04:10 PM

From BFA yesterday:

I received an e-mail from Amanda in Western New York who wrote that the Dean folks in Western New York are planning to support Jack Davis, a candidate for Congress running against an incumbent right-winger named Tom Reynolds. This is exactly what I hoped Dean folks around the country would do, not only for Congress, but also for school board members, state legislators, etc. And run yourselves!! We will be working with people to help you get trained. This will be part of the message Thursday.

Go Amanda and Western New York!!

Howard Dean

I dunno. I feel like I should go run for something! ;-)

I suspect he's keeping many things close to the vest until he does the formal announcement. But several signs point to support for local races with "dean people" running.

Posted by: J at March 16, 2004 04:19 PM

Hmmm... I must have missed that one.

I wonder, if enough Indies take up the challenge and manage to get themselves elected, how that would play into Dean's apparent agenda of reforming the Democratic Party via his grassroots organization?

I've been pondering for a while now the feasability of the guys at DI or some other pro-Dean Indy group being able to launch an Indy version or wing of the yet-to-be-announced Dean organization. I 'spose it would depend on exactly how Dean structures his and what the specific goals are and if they can be adapted to Indies too. I suspect that most of us pro-Dean Independents have no interest in joining the Democratic party. I know that I sure don't.

Posted by: Kevin@TIV at March 16, 2004 05:58 PM

I 'spose it would depend on exactly how Dean structures his and what the specific goals are and if they can be adapted to Indies too. I suspect that most of us pro-Dean Independents have no interest in joining the Democratic party. I know that I sure don't.

Yep. Depends on lots of factors.

I'm not interested in joining the Democratic party either.

Posted by: J at March 16, 2004 07:16 PM